Ambazonia’s leadership must demonstrate that independence is not simply a demand for territorial control. It is a commitment to lawful authority, public accountability, equal citizenship and institutions capable of serving the people. The immediate task is therefore not to wait for the announcement of one man’s demise. It is to prepare responsibly for the uncertain future of an entire people.
By Carl Sanders
Strategic Affairs Analyst, The Independentist News
Yaoundé – July 23, 2026 – La République du Cameroun is entering a period of profound political uncertainty. President Paul Biya’s prolonged absence from public view has intensified questions about presidential continuity, constitutional succession and the actual exercise of executive authority within one of Africa’s most centralized political systems.
An extended absence does not, by itself, establish that the presidency is legally vacant. Nor does it prove that the president is incapacitated. Government officials may insist that state institutions remain operational and that official decisions continue to be issued under presidential authority. Nevertheless, the absence of clear and credible public information raises legitimate questions about who is making critical decisions, how presidential authority is being exercised and whether the country possesses a functioning mechanism for managing an unexpected transition.
The uncertainty is compounded by the continuing absence of an appointed vice president. A constitutional office intended to provide continuity cannot fulfil that purpose while it remains vacant. The position may exist in law, but the chair remains empty.
Opposition leaders and civil-society voices have consequently demanded greater transparency and constitutional clarification. At the same time, movements within the ruling establishment have generated speculation about internal preparations for an eventual transition.
None of this proves that the government is about to collapse. La République du Cameroun’s governing structure has survived previous presidential absences, economic shocks, internal rivalries and public speculation. But the present situation exposes a central weakness: when political authority is concentrated extensively around one individual, prolonged uncertainty surrounding that individual becomes uncertainty surrounding the state itself.
For Ambazonia, this moment demands preparation—but not reckless escalation. The strongest response is disciplined diplomacy, civilian protection, financial scrutiny, institutional readiness and truthful strategic communication. Any attempt to exploit political uncertainty through uncontrolled violence, attacks on essential infrastructure, intimidation of communities or retaliation against perceived opponents would be morally indefensible and strategically disastrous. Ambazonia must demonstrate that it is preparing to govern, not merely waiting for Yaoundé to weaken.
A State Organized Around One Man
Political systems built upon durable institutions can withstand the illness, absence, resignation or death of a leader. Authority continues through established procedures, accountable offices and constitutionally defined succession. Highly personalized systems operate differently.
For more than four decades, Paul Biya has occupied the center of Cameroon’s political order. Major appointments, administrative decisions, political promotions and strategic directions have traditionally depended upon presidential authority. The ruling party, senior bureaucracy, security establishment and patronage networks have all evolved around his extraordinary political longevity.
Such concentration can create the appearance of stability while the leader remains firmly in control. Yet it can also conceal institutional weakness. Officials become accustomed to waiting for instructions from above. Rival factions suppress or conceal their ambitions. Constitutional mechanisms may exist on paper without ever being tested in practice.
When the leader disappears from public view for an extended period, unresolved questions begin to surface. Who can speak authoritatively for the presidency? Who controls appointments and access to state resources? Who commands the confidence of the armed forces and security services? Which faction would influence the selection of a successor? Would constitutional procedures be respected, manipulated or disregarded?
These questions concern everyone living under the authority of La République du Cameroun. They are especially consequential for the people of the former British Southern Cameroons, where the state continues to confront a conflict rooted in unresolved historical, constitutional and political grievances.
A succession struggle in Yaoundé could produce several possible outcomes. It might open limited space for reform. It might strengthen authoritarian hardliners. It could generate factional competition within the ruling establishment. It might create an opportunity for negotiations—or simply replace one centralizing leadership group with another.
Ambazonians must therefore avoid assuming that Biya’s eventual departure will automatically resolve the Southern Cameroons question. The conflict is not merely a personal disagreement with one president. It arises from the dismantling of the federal compact, decades of centralization and assimilation, the erosion of inherited legal and educational institutions, and the state’s violent response to the protests that began in 2016.
The end of a presidency is not necessarily the end of a political system. Financial Pressure and the Cost of Centralized Rule The political uncertainty is unfolding alongside considerable fiscal pressure. La République du Cameroun faces substantial borrowing requirements, debt-servicing obligations, budgetary pressures and growing demands upon the national treasury. These challenges were not created solely by the president’s present absence. It would therefore be inaccurate to characterize every financing measure as an emergency consequence of the current uncertainty.
Nevertheless, prolonged political opacity can affect the credibility and cost of sovereign borrowing. Investors and lenders consider fiscal deficits, public debt, economic growth, political continuity, security conditions, institutional reliability and the government’s ability to meet its obligations. Political uncertainty does not necessarily make a country insolvent, but it can increase perceived risk and reduce its capacity to absorb further shocks.
The continuing conflict in the former British Southern Cameroons imposes direct and indirect economic costs. It disrupts agriculture, trade, transportation, education, taxation and private investment. It increases security expenditure while reducing productive activity in affected communities. It weakens confidence, damages the country’s international standing and compounds the risks confronting investors and lenders.
Ambazonian diplomatic institutions and diaspora organizations are entitled to ensure that these consequences are understood internationally. They should provide lenders, credit-rating agencies, governments and multilateral institutions with carefully documented evidence concerning conflict expenditures, human-rights risks, economic disruption and the possible use of borrowed funds.
The objective should not be to circulate exaggerated claims or demand a predetermined credit downgrade. Rating agencies and financial institutions will reach their own conclusions. The purpose should be to ensure that those conclusions reflect the full financial, institutional and humanitarian consequences of the conflict.
Credibility requires evidence, not slogans. The Limits of the Odious-Debt Argument Some advocates may be tempted to warn international lenders that all obligations contracted by Yaoundé will automatically be repudiated by a future Ambazonian state. Such a declaration might attract attention, but it could create more legal and diplomatic problems than it resolves.
The doctrine of odious debt holds that obligations incurred without public consent, providing no benefit to the population and knowingly serving oppressive or corrupt purposes should not bind a successor government. The doctrine carries considerable moral force, but it is not a universally settled rule that automatically invalidates every obligation contracted by an authoritarian or disputed government.
A future Ambazonian government would also have to distinguish debts legally attributable to La République du Cameroun from obligations associated with assets, infrastructure or public services located within Ambazonian territory. Questions of state succession and public debt involve recognition, negotiation, asset allocation, territorial responsibility and international law. The credible position is therefore not blanket repudiation.
Ambazonia should state that any future government would subject disputed obligations to transparent legal and financial review. Debts associated with corruption, unlawful military activity, repression, fraudulent procurement or projects that produced no legitimate public benefit should receive especially close examination.
International lenders should be asked to disclose the purposes, beneficiaries, conditions and safeguards attached to new financing. They should be informed that knowingly financing serious abuses may produce legal, political and reputational consequences.
This approach is firm, responsible and legally defensible. It avoids making promises that international law may not support while preserving the right of a future government to challenge illegitimate obligations.
Civilian Protection Must Come First
Periods of political uncertainty are dangerous because rumor can travel faster than verified information. Armed actors may interpret institutional weakness as permission to intensify violence. Local rivalries may be disguised as political action. Civilians may be punished because of their employment, political affiliation, family relationships or perceived loyalties. Ambazonia must reject this path.
No political transition can justify attacks upon civilians, schools, hospitals, markets, religious institutions, humanitarian personnel, water systems, electricity networks, telecommunications facilities or civilian transportation.
Fuel, electricity and communications may also support government institutions, but they sustain hospitals, homes, farms, businesses and humanitarian operations. Disabling them without serious regard for civilian consequences can produce suffering far beyond any claimed political or military objective.
All parties to the conflict must respect the fundamental requirements of international humanitarian law: distinction between civilians and combatants, proportionality, precautions against civilian harm, humane treatment of detainees, and protection of medical and humanitarian services.
Ambazonian political authorities should issue clear public directives prohibiting reprisals, collective punishment and extrajudicial action. Individuals must not be targeted solely because they belong to a political party, work in the public service, have relatives in the security forces or oppose independence.
Where credible evidence of criminal conduct exists, it should be documented for lawful and impartial investigation. Threats, public blacklisting, forced confessions and punishment without due process would reproduce the very abuses the movement condemns.
The legitimacy of a future state will be judged partly by the conduct of those claiming to act in its name before that state is internationally recognized.
Protect Communities, Not Political Reputations
A credible preparedness strategy must place communities at its center. Civilian-led coordination mechanisms should bring together medical professionals, religious authorities, traditional leaders, educators, women’s organizations, humanitarian groups, youth representatives and advocates for persons with disabilities.
These networks should monitor population displacement, food and medicine availability, access to healthcare, threats against schools and hospitals, allegations of detention or disappearance, and risks of retaliatory or communal violence.
Community protection cannot be reduced to armed activity. It includes reliable information, medical preparedness, humanitarian access, safe communications, documentation and conflict de-escalation.
Particular attention must be given to children, older people, persons with disabilities, internally displaced families and communities located near military installations, contested roads or conflict-sensitive areas.
Political leaders may be tempted to minimize civilian suffering when acknowledging it appears damaging to their cause. That temptation must be resisted. Civilian suffering is not a public-relations inconvenience. It is the central human reality of the conflict.
A movement that expects the people to endure unlimited hardship while protecting its own political reputation will eventually lose both moral authority and popular trust.
Strategic Communication Must Be Credible
Ambazonian communication has sometimes been weakened by premature announcements, unverifiable claims, factional accusations and declarations that satisfy supporters emotionally but cannot withstand independent scrutiny. That must change.
No responsible institution should announce the death, incapacity or removal of a head of state without authoritative confirmation. False reports could cause panic, provoke dangerous security responses and destroy diplomatic credibility at precisely the moment when reliable communication is most necessary.
A professional verification unit should assess important constitutional, political, financial and security claims before publication. It should distinguish established facts from analysis, identify areas of uncertainty and correct errors openly.
Credibility does not require political neutrality. An independence movement can advocate forcefully for its cause. But advocacy becomes more persuasive when its evidence is accurate and its arguments are carefully constructed.
The movement should also avoid indiscriminate denunciations of Anglophone officials serving within the present system. Their conduct and policies may be scrutinized rigorously. Conflicts of interest, financial misconduct and participation in repression should be investigated and documented. But intimidation, doxing, threats against families or collective condemnation based upon political affiliation are unacceptable.
Political realignment should be encouraged through persuasion, lawful accountability and the presentation of a credible alternative—not through fear.
A Lawful Appeal to Security Personnel
The armed forces, police and gendarmerie of La République du Cameroun are not politically or morally uniform. Some personnel may have committed serious violations. Others may have acted from fear, economic necessity or professional obligation. Some may privately oppose the conflict but lack the freedom to express their concerns.
Ambazonian communication should call upon all security personnel to protect civilians, refuse manifestly unlawful orders, preserve evidence of abuses, treat detainees humanely and respect medical and humanitarian operations. Such appeals should not recklessly expose individual personnel or their families. Nor should they encourage actions likely to provoke reprisals against vulnerable communities. The message should be clear: political uncertainty does not suspend the law, and no transition will excuse atrocities.
Individuals credibly implicated in serious crimes should face independent investigation. Those who protected civilians, resisted unlawful instructions or helped prevent abuses should also have their conduct recognized. Justice must be individual, impartial and evidence-based. It must never become collective revenge.
Ambazonia Must Explain What Comes Next The international community will not be persuaded by an argument consisting solely of Yaoundé’s failures. Governments, diplomats, investors and humanitarian institutions will ask a more demanding question:
What would Ambazonia build?
A serious movement must explain how a transitional administration would maintain hospitals, schools, courts, policing, public finance, electricity, telecommunications, food distribution, transportation and humanitarian access. It must articulate protections for minorities, political opponents, displaced persons, civil servants and residents who do not support independence.
It must explain how public revenue would be collected and audited, how corruption would be restrained, how security institutions would be subjected to civilian authority, and how competing political organizations would participate in an inclusive constitutional process. This is the difference between protest and statecraft.
A transitional-governance framework should include commitments to constitutional rule, separation of powers, judicial independence, accountable policing, civilian control of security institutions, transparent public finance, freedom of expression, property rights and credible elections. It should establish that no individual or armed organization will be permitted to convert wartime influence into permanent political entitlement. Liberation cannot mean replacing one unaccountable system with another.
Diplomacy Must Be Organized Before the Transition
Ambazonian diplomacy should not wait for an official succession announcement before developing relationships, preparing legal arguments and presenting a credible political program. Qualified teams in international law, sovereign finance, human rights, humanitarian affairs, public administration and strategic communication should prepare evidence-based submissions for the African Union, United Nations, Commonwealth, foreign governments, multilateral lenders, human-rights bodies and potential mediators.
Each submission must be adapted to its recipient. A financial institution requires evidence about debt, fiscal risk, project safeguards and potential misuse of funds. A human-rights body requires documented violations, witness protection and verifiable records. A government or diplomatic mission requires a clear political analysis and a realistic pathway toward conflict resolution.
Mass-produced letters filled with accusations will not substitute for professional diplomacy. Ambazonia must build a sustained diplomatic record capable of surviving legal, political and journalistic scrutiny. Every claim should be supportable. Every proposed remedy should be lawful. Every engagement should reinforce the central message that the conflict requires a credible political resolution.
Three Phases of Responsible Readiness
The first phase should begin immediately. Ambazonian political and diplomatic institutions should verify the principal claims surrounding presidential continuity, constitutional succession and public borrowing. Legal and financial specialists should prepare evidence-based submissions for international institutions. Civilian-protection directives should be issued, and a crisis-verification team should coordinate public information.
The movement should also publish a concise transitional-governance framework. The world should not have to wait for a succession crisis to discover what Ambazonia stands for beyond independence. During any continuing period of uncertainty, the movement should document human-rights and humanitarian conditions, support lawful humanitarian access, discourage inflammatory speculation and refine its plans for political and economic stabilization. Quiet engagement with the African Union, United Nations, Commonwealth, foreign governments, humanitarian institutions and respected mediators should intensify.
If a constitutional transition is officially confirmed, Ambazonian leaders should appeal for calm and restraint. They should request urgent international engagement, renew the demand for a negotiated settlement and publish specific commitments concerning democracy, human rights, minority protection, public accountability and regional stability.
They should not treat the death or incapacity of one individual as an occasion for celebration or revenge. The substantive issue is the political system and the unresolved constitutional status of the former British Southern Cameroons—not the mortality of a single leader.
The Danger of Mistaking Uncertainty for Collapse
The prolonged uncertainty surrounding President Biya has exposed the vulnerabilities of a political system concentrated around one ruler for more than four decades. The lack of a clearly functioning succession arrangement, demands for constitutional clarification, maneuvering within the ruling establishment and mounting financial pressures make the succession question increasingly difficult for Yaoundé to avoid.
Yet Ambazonia must not confuse uncertainty with collapse—or collapse with liberation. A disorderly succession could strengthen hardliners, intensify repression, disrupt humanitarian access and expose civilians to greater danger. Competing elites might reorganize the same centralized system under different leadership without addressing the Southern Cameroons question.
Ambazonia must therefore prepare for several possible outcomes rather than construct its strategy around one prediction. The strongest instruments available to the movement are disciplined diplomacy, verified evidence, civilian protection, constitutional planning, financial competence and a persuasive vision of responsible government.
International legitimacy will not be earned by demonstrating an ability to deepen disorder. It will be earned by showing the capacity to protect life, respect law, preserve essential services and offer a more accountable political future.
A Question Larger Than One Presidency
The former British Southern Cameroons question existed before Paul Biya’s presidency. Unless it is confronted through a credible political process, it will remain unresolved after his departure. Leadership change in Yaoundé may alter the political environment, but it will not erase the historical record, restore the dismantled federal compact or resolve the grievances that produced the present conflict. Those matters require sustained political engagement, constitutional courage and an internationally credible settlement process.
Ambazonia must enter any coming transition with discipline. It must protect civilians, preserve essential services, document abuses, scrutinize public borrowing, communicate truthfully and present a realistic framework for democratic government.
Its leaders must demonstrate that independence is not simply a demand for territorial control. It is a commitment to lawful authority, public accountability, equal citizenship and institutions capable of serving the people. The immediate task is therefore not to wait for the announcement of one man’s demise. It is to prepare responsibly for the uncertain future of an entire people.
Carl Sanders
Strategic Affairs Analyst, The Independentist News
