Yet history shows that systems built solely on survival tactics eventually exhaust their tricks. A mask, however prestigious, cannot indefinitely animate a failing body. As the embers at Etoudi dim, one warning remains apt: A man who hangs his shadow on a rotting tree should not be surprised when they both fall together.
By Carl Sanders | Soho, London The Independentistnews correspondent.
YAOUNDÉ February 9, 2026 – As the political calendar turns to 2026, Cameroon once again finds itself trapped in a familiar time loop — a cycle of survival tactics executed with clinical precision, even as the foundations of the regime visibly weaken. A 92-year-old incumbent presides over a nation whose median age is just 18.5, a generation that has outgrown the rhetoric and political formulas of the 1980s. Yet Etoudi Palace continues to operate according to a survival blueprint perfected over four decades: institutional manipulation, proxy opposition management, and calculated deception, all deployed to preserve power at any cost.
The Biya Survival Formula
The regime’s longevity is not accidental. It is engineered through strategies that have become unmistakable hallmarks of the Biya era.
The Trojan Horse Opposition
Divide and rule remains the regime’s most reliable instrument. Opposition forces are fragmented, personalities are inflated during election cycles, and challengers emerge who appear formidable yet ultimately serve to dilute genuine dissent. The result is a theatrical democracy where competition exists in appearance but never in outcome, ensuring perpetual opposition disunity.
The Anglophone Shield Strategy
From the appointment of Simon Achidi Achu in the 1990s to present speculation surrounding internationally polished technocrats, the playbook remains unchanged: elevate Anglophone figures to high office while preserving the real levers of power elsewhere. These appointments function as diplomatic shields and political lightning rods rather than instruments of structural change. Cosmetic inclusion cannot repair systemic decay.
A Government Sleeping Behind Bars
Through selective anti-corruption campaigns, potential successors have been neutralized, rivals sidelined, and ambitions buried in prison cells. The effect is chillingly effective: no credible internal transition can take root when those capable of mounting one have already been politically eliminated.
Ballot Engineering and Institutional Coup-Proofing
In Cameroon, authoritarian control operates as much through paperwork as through force. Judicial maneuvers, administrative controls, and electoral engineering ensure that even regions hostile to the regime produce convenient participation rates and predictable results. Stability is enforced, not earned.
2026: A Moment of Reckoning
The regime now survives in a state of visible exhaustion, sustained by distraction, propaganda, and recycled political theater. Loud spokesmen, staged reconciliation efforts, and periodic diplomatic gestures serve one purpose: buying time.
But the Anglophone crisis has crossed a psychological point of no return. The conflict is no longer about cabinet appointments or symbolic representation. Filling ministries with English speakers cannot mend a political divorce already sealed in the minds of many citizens. The movement for separation has crossed its Rubicon.
The Final Act Approaches
2026 stands as a dangerous juncture. The absence of a credible succession mechanism creates volatility at the very top of the state. Election postponements, constitutional maneuvering, or externally packaged stabilization efforts remain plausible tools to prolong the status quo.
Yet history shows that systems built solely on survival tactics eventually exhaust their tricks. A mask, however prestigious, cannot indefinitely animate a failing body. As the embers at Etoudi dim, one warning remains apt: A man who hangs his shadow on a rotting tree should not be surprised when they both fall together.
Carl Sanders | Soho, London
