Tchiroma’s ascent is all the more fascinating given his long tenure within the very establishment he now challenges. For years, he served in senior ministerial positions, including Minister of Communication and Minister of Employment and Vocational Training. He also began his career as a railway engineer, a discipline that trained him to think strategically and execute with precision.
By Uchiba Nelson for The Independentist.
A Moment of Reckoning
On October 12, 2025, the people of Cameroon cast ballots in what many hoped would be more than a ritual — a turning point after decades under the same leadership. By the next day, Issa Tchiroma Bakary had unilaterally declared victory, urging the 92-year-old incumbent, Paul Biya, to concede. His declaration was bold, but also dangerous: the Electoral Commission and the Constitutional Council still hold legal authority to validate or invalidate the results, and their pronouncement is expected by October 26.
Reaction from the government was swift. Officials warned that any premature claiming of victory was unconstitutional and even tantamount to “high treason.” Meanwhile, Tchiroma, speaking from his stronghold in Garoua, framed the moment as one of democratic destiny. He called on Biya to concede — not just for formality but for the legitimacy of the nation.
The Transformation of a Political Survivor
Tchiroma’s ascent is all the more fascinating given his long tenure within the very establishment he now challenges. For years, he served in senior ministerial positions, including Minister of Communication and Minister of Employment and Vocational Training. He also began his career as a railway engineer, a discipline that trained him to think strategically and execute with precision.
In mid-2025, he abruptly resigned from his ministerial post and declared his candidacy, positioning himself as a repentant insider: one who had seen the flaws within and now claimed the moral authority to change direction. He has issued public apologies for past positions, especially regarding the Anglophone crisis and state abuses. His platform emphasizes national reconciliation, possible amnesty for political prisoners, and a return to federal-like governance — a striking reversal from his earlier stances.
This pivot has electrified many. His blend of insider knowledge and disavowal of earlier alignment gives him rhetorical advantage: he can claim to know the levers of power while presenting himself as the architect of its undoing.
Tensions, Risks, and the Waiting Game
Yet, this is not a victory secured — it is a gamble.
Institutional Resistance: The electoral and constitutional organs retain the power to shape the narrative. Their final word will determine whether Tchiroma’s claim gains formal legitimacy or is dismissed.
Government Pushback: Authorities have hinted at legal action and warned supporters against unrest.
Historical Precedent: Past challengers who declared victory ahead of official announcements were quickly neutralized through arrests or suppression.
Public Mood and Unrest: If official results contradict Tchiroma’s declaration, the population’s reaction will be crucial. The risk of confrontation between security forces and protesters remains real.
International Mediation: Tchiroma is signaling engagement with diplomats and external actors, seeking to frame his stance as legitimate both domestically and abroad.
If he plays his cards well, he may force a constitutional and political crisis — compelling either a concession or overreach by the regime that would further weaken its legitimacy.
What Happens Next? Four Scenarios
Judicial Backdown or Partial Concession
The Constitutional Council validates most of the unofficial results, forcing a concession or transitional arrangement. Tchiroma could emerge as a transitional president.
Official Rejection and Crackdown
The court rejects his claim, arrests follow, and the state reasserts control through force.
Standoff and Parallel Governance
Tchiroma remains underground but active, creating competing claims of legitimacy and fracturing state authority.
Negotiated Settlement Under Pressure
Domestic unrest, international involvement, and internal power struggles lead to a power-sharing or staged transition.
Narrative Significance
If Tchiroma prevails — even partially — his journey will be one of history’s ironies: a former regime defender becoming the instrument of its undoing. He has recast himself from the system’s mouthpiece to its challenger, appealing to a disillusioned public and to those who once dismissed him.
Yet much now hinges on fragile levers: courts, security forces, diplomacy, and the endurance of popular support. As the October 26 deadline approaches, Cameroon stands on the edge of a historic transformation. The structures of power remain, but the soul of authority is being tested.
Uchiba Nelson
