The Francophone World in an Era of Transition: Sahel Upheavals, Ambazonian Resistance, and a Shifting Cameroonian Center

This architecture has come under severe strain. Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French troops and cancelled key agreements, signalling both popular dissatisfaction with perceived neocolonial structures and a desire to diversify international partnerships.

By The Independentist Political Desk

Across much of the Francophone world, particularly in Africa, long-standing political and economic arrangements are undergoing profound change. French influence, once woven tightly through military, diplomatic, and economic channels, is visibly weakening. This coincides with the emergence of new political actors, popular movements, and shifting alliances that together suggest not just turbulence, but a structural reconfiguration of post-colonial relations.

Two developments stand out: the retreat of French power in the Sahel and the continuing Ambazonian uprising in the Gulf of Guinea region. Added to this is the uncertainty surrounding the succession of Cameroon’s long-time president, Paul Biya, a figure closely associated with the Francafrique system. Together, these dynamics illuminate a broader continental and geopolitical turning point.

French Influence in the Sahel: Retreat or Realignment

For decades, France maintained a pivotal security and economic role in the Sahel through military deployments, defense treaties, and preferential access to strategic resources such as uranium. This architecture has come under severe strain. Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French troops and cancelled key agreements, signalling both popular dissatisfaction with perceived neocolonial structures and a desire to diversify international partnerships.

Observers differ on how to interpret this shift. Some see it as a decisive rollback of French dominance, reflecting accumulated grievances over unequal economic relations and limited local sovereignty. Others frame it as a strategic recalibration, with France reducing its overstretched military footprint while retaining significant cultural, economic, and diplomatic levers. Either way, the unquestioned primacy of French power in the Sahel has ended, replaced by a more contested and multipolar environment.

Ambazonia: A Quiet but Strategic Front

Less visible on the international stage, but no less significant, is the Ambazonian conflict in the former British Southern Cameroons. Since 2017, separatist movements have challenged the authority of Yaoundé, citing historical breaches in decolonisation, lack of autonomy, and human rights abuses. While the conflict is often treated as a localised insurgency, it is embedded within the broader geopolitics of Francophone Africa.

The government in Yaoundé has relied on diplomatic support from France and other partners to maintain its position. Paris, historically Cameroon’s key ally, has provided technical, security, and political backing to the Biya regime. Yet, the persistence of the Ambazonian uprising reveals the limits of external support in sustaining internal legitimacy. Even with state resources and foreign alliances, the conflict has not been decisively resolved, and its endurance continues to expose tensions at the heart of Cameroon’s post-colonial model.

The Biya Question: A Political Transition in Waiting

Paul Biya, in power since 1982, has been one of the longest-serving leaders in the world and a central figure in France’s network of loyal African partners. His eventual departure, whether through natural succession, political transition, or internal realignment, raises critical questions.

Some analysts predict that his exit could trigger instability, given the lack of an obvious, legitimate successor capable of maintaining the current political balance. Others argue that elite factions, backed by external allies, may manage a relatively orderly handover to preserve continuity. Either way, the transition will occur in a regional context less favourable to French influence than at any point in the last half-century. Ambazonian resistance, coupled with Sahelian upheavals, makes the environment far less predictable.

Collapsology Meets Geopolitics

French scholars have long explored the idea of collapsology, analysing the potential breakdown of modern systems. Yet the most significant disruptions to France’s post-imperial order are happening not in theory but in practice, in African regions once considered stable extensions of French power.

To some, these shifts represent the dissolution of a historical geopolitical architecture. To others, they signal an overdue rebalancing, in which African societies assert greater autonomy in defining their political and economic futures. These two perspectives are not mutually exclusive: the erosion of old systems can coincide with the emergence of new solidarities and governance models.

Looking Ahead: Uncertain but Defining Times

The Francophone world stands at a crossroads. In the short term, France may attempt to preserve influence through diplomatic, economic, or even covert means. Regional actors, meanwhile, are experimenting with alternative alliances and forms of governance.

For Ambazonia, the Sahel, and other African movements, the decline of a single hegemonic power presents both opportunities and risks. The post-Francafrique era will not be defined by a vacuum, but by competing visions: between old clientelist networks, new nationalist movements, external powers seeking influence, and transnational civil society demanding justice and sovereignty.

Conclusion

The interplay of Sahelian realignments, Ambazonian resistance, and Cameroonian succession politics provides a revealing lens on the larger transformation of France’s post-colonial sphere. Whether this transformation leads to instability or renewal depends on how African actors, France, and the international community respond to the challenges and possibilities of this new era.

The Independentist Political Desk