By betting on Kamto’s docility and dismissing Tchiroma’s ambitions, the regime has engineered its own dilemma. The hyena they once fed is now circling back. The electoral night that was supposed to end predictably is far from over.
By The Independentist news Desk
Kamto: The Predictable Opponent
When the Beti-Bulu power establishment began preparing for the twilight of Biya’s era, their succession strategy rested on two core assumptions: containment through docility and fragmentation of rivals. For years, Prof. Maurice Kamto represented the ideal “safe opposition”: articulate enough to play the democratic theatre, but too economically entangled to unleash mass disruption. His Bamileke base, with deep business interests across Cameroon, was unlikely to jeopardize economic stability through street agitation. In the regime’s calculus, Kamto was a manageable legalist—someone who could be jailed, released, and neutralized through a mixture of repression and selective co-optation.
Kamto’s rise never truly threatened the foundations of Beti-Bulu dominance. His 2018 post-election defiance, though symbolically potent, was ultimately contained through legal theatrics and temporary detention. His supporters—urban, economically anchored, and strategically cautious—never mobilized at scale. The regime correctly wagered that the Bamileke elite would not burn their own markets for Kamto. Had Kamto remained the focal point in 2025, the state could have deployed its usual playbook: legal delays, selective repression, and eventual co-optation. Power transfer within the Beti-Bulu oligarchy would have unfolded in a tightly controlled environment, with the Bamileke street neutralized by economics, not fear.
Tchiroma: The Unruly Northern Variable
Tchiroma represents a different historical current—rooted in the Grand Nord’s resentment over decades of marginalization since the Ahidjo–Biya transition. He is not beholden to the same economic logic as Kamto. He speaks the language of betrayal and vengeance, and he resonates with a population that feels left behind by Yaoundé’s southern oligarchy.
The regime’s error was to allow Tchiroma to build momentum unchecked, believing northern factions were too divided to unite behind a single figure. But decades of frustration have produced a combustible undercurrent. His candidacy gave it a voice and a focal point.
The Northern Readiness — Atanga Nji’s Threat Backfires
In the midst of this rising tension, Minister of Territorial Administration Paul Atanga Nji—known among Ambazonians as the Minister of Terror—has issued thinly veiled threats of doom against Issa Tchiroma. In private, regime insiders admit their anguish: Tchiroma did not play by the “arranged script.”
While Osih, Bouba Bello Maïgari, and other candidates quietly collected their cash rewards for compliance, Tchiroma has refused to fold. The elite expected the night of the election to end as always—with a scripted proclamation, muted opposition, and a return to normalcy before dawn.
But this time, the electoral night is still young, and the North is ready. Communities in Garoua, Ngaoundéré, Maroua, and beyond are bracing themselves—not out of blind loyalty, but out of a sense that their time to challenge southern domination has come. Threats from Yaoundé no longer carry the same weight. The regime’s bluff has been called.
Behind Closed Doors: Panic and Calculation
Within the Beti-Bulu inner circle, panic is setting in. What was supposed to be a well-choreographed coronation is turning into a northern political uprising with unpredictable consequences. They had prepared for a legalist Kamto, not a populist Tchiroma. They had prepared for fragmented northern elites, not a rallying figure with nothing to lose.
Every step they took to sideline him now returns with multiplied force. Arresting him could ignite the northern powder keg. Ignoring him could erode the façade of control. Negotiating with him risks empowering a rival they no longer trust.
Ambazonia Is Watching
As the regime scrambles to contain an unexpected northern storm, Ambazonia is watching closely. For years, the struggle in the south and west has carried the brunt of Yaoundé’s repression. Now, a new axis of destabilization has emerged—not because the Beti-Bulu elite wanted it, but because they misread the real threat.
By betting on Kamto’s docility and dismissing Tchiroma’s ambitions, the regime has engineered its own dilemma. The hyena they once fed is now circling back. The electoral night that was supposed to end predictably is far from over.
The Independentist news Desk
